Etihad Airlines and the "New" Middle East

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/10/11/etihad-airways-and-the-new-middle-east/

This interesting article from late last year is a bit Pollyannish.  It compares apples and oranges.  As an airline analyst I can tell you that the author "gets it" for some of the reasons he lists regarding Etihad's successful business model.  A lot of it, however, as also is the case of Emirates and Qatar has to do with customer service as compared to legacy carriers - and on simple geography - as in real estate and regional planning - location - is everything for a hub airline. That's the apple... The GCC states are very well placed for linking long distance routes and connections.  Where we get to the oranges is geography and other factors. Geography, however, is where things get complicated and where the author gets bogged down in the sands of Middle Eastern cultures, religions, and politics.  He admits to never having visited the region and apparently bases his observations on the stock market and even CNN.  As one who has been involved in the analysis and diplomacy of the region for more than three decades and has travelled there, I have to regard this analysis as superficial - maybe ok for buying some stocks but not for political investment and political risk forecasting.  Neither Syria nor Iran will transform into a UAE or Oman or Qatar.  The intersection of Shia Islam and Iranian politics and security policy will not easily lead to democratic change.  The economic oasis of airline success could dry up if geopolitical forces shift to a conflict in the Straits of Hormuz or an Iranian attack on the GCC such as in response to an Israeli or other strike on Iranian nuclear sites.  Etihad's success - no matter how great an airline it is (and it is) cannot be equated as a harbinger of progress in the Middle East.