Interesting and Positive Development Regarding Charlotte Airport (CLT)

Top officials quietly urge airport compromise | CharlotteObserver.com

The creation of a commission would be a positive step in dealing with the contentious issue of governance of the Charlotte, North Carolina Airport.  Although it serves a region, it has been built; effectively operated and grown to be a global hub by the City of Charlotte.  What seems to be left out of this issue is the participation of adjacent South Carolina jurisdictions - the NY-NJ Port Authority, which operates regional airports (JFK, Newark, Teterboro and LaGuardia) in the New York area encompasses two state jurisdictions.  - Mark Carolla (Analyst, Pierce Pugliese & Carolla Air Analytics, LLC)

MIA gets black Lab Retrievers to help screen passengers - Miami-Dade - MiamiHerald.com

MIA gets black Lab Retrievers to help screen passengers - Miami-Dade - MiamiHerald.comhttp://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/03/3379700/mia-gets-black-lab-retrievers.html

The use of dogs adds another layer in security - it is random and is a factor that terrorists have to include in their penetration plans - The basic question they have to ask themselves is: "Do we feel lucky today about this target?"  Hopefully coming to an airport you use soon. 

One thing about the Boston Bombing on April 15th - terrorists do not necessarily look like people from the Middle East - and terrorists: radical jihadists; radical nationalists; and extremists come from areas such as Russia, the Balkans, Southeast Asia and here in the US.  These dogs should help deter and make airports a "harder target."

Secretary of Transportation nominee Foxx expected to be rail friendly - TRAINS Magazine

Secretary of Transportation nominee Foxx expected to be rail friendly - TRAINS Magazinehttp://trn.trains.com/Railroad%20News/News%20Wire/2013/04/Secretary%20of%20Transportation%20nominee%20Foxx%20expected%20to%20be%20rail%20friendly.aspx

A non-partisan news item I wrote as a Trains Magazine correspondent on April 30th on Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx's probable even handedness towards rail and intermodal transportation.  Certain Charlotte controversies might receive a national spotlight during the confirmation process and if Foxx is confirmed, at the cabinet level in national politics. - Mark Carolla

Boardman calls for more funding on Amtraks anniversary - TRAINS Magazine

Boardman calls for more funding on Amtraks anniversary - TRAINS Magazinehttp://trn.trains.com/Railroad%20News/News%20Wire/2013/05/Boardman%20calls%20for%20more%20funding%20on%20Amtraks%20anniversary.aspx

Despite state level efforts such as North Carolina's North Carolina Rail program and Virginia, New York, New Jersey, California and Illinois programs, "Green" intercity passenger  service in the US needs a national stucture as part of a system of systems. - Mark Carolla

A look at transportation secretary nominee Anthony Foxx - TRAINS Magazine

A look at transportation secretary nominee Anthony Foxx - TRAINS Magazine

http://trn.trains.com/en/Railroad%20News/News%20Wire/2013/05/A%20look%20at%20transportation%20secretary%20nominee%20Anthony%20Foxx.aspx

Here is what Trains Magazine special correspondent Don Phillips has to say about Mayor Foxx's nomination to be US Secretary of Transportation.  DISCLAIMER: I am also a correspondent for Trains.  - Mark Carolla

The Battle for Control of Charlotte's Airport: Conflicts of Interest?

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/04/25/4004897/behind-the-battle-for-clt.html#emlnl=Todays_Headlines

The airport is on course for tough decisions, real tough decisions The political moves for control of Charlotte's airport (CLT) has all of the making of a political thriller with a potential Department of Transportation regulator potentially beholden to an airline he would regulate; one party seeking to wrest control of a facility controlled by the other party; and most customers of CLT never stepping foot out of the gate areas.  Although Mayor Foxx thinks an airport study to be fair, it was the result of a study by a former US Airways executive. 

Canadian authorities arrest two for plotting attack on VIA Rail - TRAINS Magazine

Canadian authorities arrest two for plotting attack on VIA Rail - TRAINS Magazine

Item by Mark Carolla, free-lance correspondent for Trains Magazine and advisor to Edna Chirico, Green Moose Consulting.  The Royal Canadian Mounted Police break up an alleged terrorist ring targeting VIA Rail in Ontario.  US sources report it to be the joint Amtrak-VIA Rail Maple Leaf running from Toronto to New York.

Chavez's Legacy: Venezuela Split

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/venezuelans-are-polarized-in-post-election-crisis/2013/04/18/195db388-a799-11e2-9e1c-bb0fb0c2edd9_story_1.html#

El "Comandante" Hugo Chavez ruled Venezuela like an old-fashioned caudillo with the support of Cuba and Iran and the entire clown alley of "anti-imperialists."  Although lacking in the brutality of the Dominican Republic's Trujillo, he rivaled Mussolini's buffonery; and he pandered to the poor (made that way, admittedly by the excesses of Venezuela's upper one per cent) with free appliances and scholarships and turned his country into an economic basket case where crime is rampant; there is 25 cent per gallon gasoline but there are frequent power shortages. Chavez, the socialist, didn't learn the adage of Vladimir Illyich Ulyanov (aka Lenin) that "Communism is Soviet Power plus Electrification of the Entire Country."  By badgering the free press and rigging elections Chavez and now Maduro might be achieving "Soviet Power" but the only thing that is being "electrified" is division between the haves and have nots.

Why is this important to Charlotte? Because Venezuela is one of our larger trading partners; is culturally significant; and Chavez could be imitated by other "anti-imperialist" fake democrats in the Hemisphere.  One thing about democracy that isn't tempered by such institutions as the US Electoral College:  It can be one person, one vote, one time. 

Disclaimer: I studied at the Inter-American Defense College in Washington the year el Comandante got elected and some Venezuelan heroes and patriots were my classmates and dear friends (including one who became Chavez's Chief of Naval Operations)  - Mark Carolla

Auburn University's aviation program in jeopardy - WSFA.com: News Weather and Sports for Montgomery, AL.

Auburn University's aviation program in jeopardy - WSFA.com: News Weather and Sports for Montgomery, AL.

This item demonstrates one STEM education issue.  Willing students but a paucity of programs and paths to jobs.  This university has a nationally known program...and yet is willing to let it wither away.  It would be interesting to see what is invested onthe football team.

Sustainable Agriculture in the Heart of Connecticut Industry

http://www.massarofarm.org/wp/

In New England - here is a "Green" place worth visiting - Massaro Community Farm.  Connecticut, although in the Northeast Corridor "Megalopolis" is actually a "Green" State in that about a third of it is still wooded - and when you fly over it at 35,000 feet it certainly is green.  Massaro Community Farm is a non profit, certified organic farm on a 57 acre parcel of land operated collaboratively between the Town of Woodbridge, Connecticut and a Board of Directors comprised of local citizens. The property was deeded to the town by the Massaro Family, who had farmed the land since 1916. The farm operation includes a 150-member CSA,* and a series of education and family-related events throughout the year. The organization's vision is to enhance the quality of life for generations to come.

*What the heck is a CSA?  Community-Supported Agriculture or CSA, has become a very popular food system consumer participates in the farming life by offsetting the capital investment required of the farmer and sharing the risk as well as the food with other participating subscribers. Each week during the season, subscribers receive a bag or two of freshly-picked seasonal farm goods.

Security on LYNX

Security Built into LYNX Plans and Operations

The Charlotte LYNX has security plans and mitigation efforts incorporated into its planning as this study shows.http://www.rideonnews.com/deis/Chapter%2016%20-%20Safety%20and%20Security.pdf

It can be expected in the wake of the terrorist attack in Boston that questions will be raised about the safety and security of LYNX light rail.  The Queen City needn't be complacent but there are security operating procedures in place and being improved.  Exact details can't be divulged - to keep the bad guys guessing.

Hotel Security after Boston - and Mumbai

This item is from Travel Agent Central:

Trend Watch – As Suspects in Boston Bombings Surface, What's Next for Travel Security?
http://www.travelagentcentral.com/trends-research/trend-watch-suspects-boston-bombings-surface-whats-next-travel-security-40155


April 17, 2013
By: Adam Leposa

The LA Times and Associated Press are reporting that police have identified possible suspects in the Boston Marathon bombings. But as the investigation continues, what will this event mean for the future of travel security? Travel Agent caught up with Todd Seiders, director of risk management at Petra Risk Solutions and former director of loss prevention at Marriott, on how hotels and public events can work to increase traveler safety in the future. “The Boston Marathon bombing is just another example of how hard it is to secure public places and events,” Seiders says. “According to the news, bomb dogs had swept the finish line area 1 hour prior to the start of the marathon. So obviously police did everything they could to secure the area, and the bombs were brought in during the event.” Because of the nature of their business, implementing TSA-style security measures at hotels would not be a good idea, Seiders says. “They would have to limit the entry into their buildings, search bags, confirm you have business there and inconvenience everyone. The general public will not stand for that (look at the continuing uproar about the TSA at airports).” Complicating the issue is the fact that hotel staff members are, by and large, trained to please potential guests, which can render them vulnerable to security threats. “There is a constant clash between hotel security experts and seasoned hotel management people, whose pay and bonuses depend on guest satisfaction surveys and comments,” Seiders continues. “Hotel security experts need to find more guest friendly ways to provide security, and hotel managers need to take security more seriously. A large number of hotels do not have a dedicated security staff, so security falls on the guest service staff, and guest service staff is trained never to say no or to offend or interfere with the guest experience.” Seiders recommends hotels install HD cameras to monitor open public spaces, exits and entrances, both to deter crime and to aid investigation should one occur. Staff should be trained to pick up and investigate unattended bags or luggage, and hotels should work closely with their local police of sheriff department, along with Homeland Security, to discuss security and terrorism. “Hotel staff is scared to death that if they upset a guest and have a complaint, they will always get in trouble,” Seiders says. “This prevents hotel staff from acting in a security role and questioning suspicious behavior. Attitudes about hotel security need to change all around.”

Mark’s Comment: What goes for public transportation "see something, say something" goes for the hotel and hospitality industry too. In a free democracy that is not living in terror of the terrorists, citizens have to be trained to be aware of their surroundings and not depend on others to look out for them except at the macro national or regional law enforcement level. Certainly unattended luggage will continue to be problematic in a hotel lobby, for instance, but left items not entrusted to a bell hop should certainly be reported; or if spotted by staff placed in a secure area as a "customer service." Random patrols of major hotel lobbies by alert, courteous and well-armed law enforcement could provide a sense of security to travelers and serve to deter terrorists. Also, good customer service should not deter service staff or front desks from alerting security to suspicious behavior without confronting a guest.

DC Streetcar Seeks Enhanced Connectivity

An article in Railway Age Magazine (see http://www.railwayage.com/index.php/passenger/light-rail/study-eyes-extension-for-dc-streetcar-startup.html?channel=61) highlights some changes in the plan for the District of Columbia's budding streetcar system. Modifications and extensions are called for to link it with the Metro system. As a note, across the Potomac in Arlington and Alexandria, Virginia streetcar lines are also being developed. Perhaps this could be a case study for Charlotte's first steps with a streetcar. Another Railway Age article (see http://www.railwayage.com/index.php/passenger/light-rail/here-come-the-streetcars.html?channel=61 ) suggests indirectly that differentiating between light rail as in the case of LYNX and streetcar lines is really not appropriate and the two can and should be linked as the technologies are quite similar. Of course, local political and budgetary concerns might be different from elsewhere in the US, but these concepts are worth a thought. - Mark Carolla, April 10, 2012

Catawba River District: Schoolyard Gardens: Entrepreunrism, Environmental Education and Social and STEM Learning

       The Charlotte North Carolina Catawba River District  (www.catawbariverdistrict.org) is engaged in environmental, marketing education and science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) education that could and serve as a model for international sustainable development programs.
       The Catawba River District  is one of the leaders in the  transition out of the "fast food" model for education and seeks to connect education to entrepreneurism. Farm to School (also called schoolyard gardens) is rapidly becoming a national phenomenon. Extensive research details how schoolyard gardens enhance curriculum while improving the physical activity, health and nutrition of students, teachers and parents. These benefits take place regardless of the economic level of the school community.
      The River District has worked with a team of experts to create a transformational gardening and farming project involving six public schools in the Charlotte Area. Whitewater Academy, Whitewater Middle School, River Oaks Academy and Mountain Island Elementary in Mecklenburg County are working in coordination with Rivendell Farms. Catawba Heights Elementary and Ida Rankin Elementary in Gaston County are working with the Gaston County Cooperative Extension.

       The River District has also have formed the Farm To School Team of volunteer experts to guide in the program to grow to include a working farm, a food hub to process produce from school gardens and small farms, and school meals that include nutritious food that students helped grow.

        The Catawba River District has formed the K-20 Learning World, a collaboration of educators to help us nurture the learning of science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) through activities focused on environmental themes. Their experts include STEM leadership from Charlotte-Mecklenburg and Gaston County Schools, Discovery Place Science Museum and UNC

        Each school is developing a master campus plan that includes components such as schoolyard gardens, composting, wildlife habitats, outdoor classrooms and other STEM-focused projects. At the middle school level, connections to job/career awareness are integrated into the curriculum. They plan to expand schoolyard gardens and incorporate construction-related projects appealing to middle and high school students. However, economically disadvantaged areas such as those served by some River District schools need additional financial help to effectively implement farm to school principles.

        These are great concepts. As an educator a trained historian and having just taught a high school Marketing class as a substitute I believe that middle schools and high schools could integrate such activities into their social studies (historic methods of agriculture etc.) and marketing curriculums - and biology too! 

         The small non profit Catawba River District is seeking funding to invite 65 area schools already participating in schoolyard gardens to develop a product for sale at the 2014 Southern Spring Show.

          Check out their website at www.catawbariverdistrict.org for more information and volunteer and donating opportunities.   - Posted by Mark Carolla

Uncertain Course for Charlotte Airport and Charlotte Economy as US Airways and American Airlines Merge

           As a long time airline and transportation analyst I have some concerns regarding the US Airways - American Airlines merger and how it might affect Charlotte.  Although I reside and work about 400 miles north of Charlotte next to Washington's Dulles International Airport I advise and work with Edna Chirico, a consultant in Charlotte and have a keen interest in Charlotte's economy and Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT).  Under the long time stewardship of almost legendary and extremely capable Jerry Orr CLT has truly made North Carolina "first in flight." This post is an update of an assessment that I provided some days ago.

           The just announced merger of US Airways and American Airlines will have a major effect on the economic fortunes of the Charlotte, North Carolina Airport.  Snobs from elsewhere in the US sometimes refer to Charlotte as “Mayberry with an Airport.”  (Mayberry being the rural North Carolina town of an Andy Griffith Show and Mayberry RFD television comedy series of the 1960’s.)  Charlotte, with its financial and business presence with several Fortune 500 firms located there, including several such as Chiquita Brands with international operations and equities isn’t exactly Mayberry.  Notably, there are 194 German-owned firms in the Charlotte area including 59 U.S. headquarters; making Germany the most largely represented foreign country in the region. Charlotte Douglas Airport (CLT) is the sixth largest airport in the United States when it comes to flight operations, but about 90 per cent of passenger traffic is US Airways hub traffic connecting through CLT and does not represent locally generated travel.  CLT is home to over 15,000 direct airport jobs.   The big variable in this merger is that Charlotte does not generate nearly as much originating traffic as other major US Airways and American hubs such as Miami, Chicago, JFK New York, and Philadelphia do. 

            What will happen to CLT now that US Airways takes over American?   An excellent April 9, 2012 article by Ely Portillo in the Charlotte Observer  quoted Aviation analyst Henry Harteveldt of Cambridge, Mass.-based Atmosphere Research Group, as stating it’s risky to invest in more capacity with the future of the airport’s No. 1 carrier up in the air. “Charlotte’s future is so heavily tied to US Airways’ status as an independent airline, and right now there is a lot of uncertainty,” he said. “There really is a risk.”   (Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/04/09/3158982/airport-bets-a-billion-on-future.html#storylink=cpy  )   According to the same Observer article respected and veteran CLT Airport Director Jerry Orr said at the time “he’s not concerned about the possibility of a US Airways merger. He said there always will be room in the Southeast for a hub besides Atlanta, and Charlotte Douglas can be that hub as long as it is well-run and stays low-cost for airlines. That might be wishful thinking.  US Airways CEO Doug Parker [said] the airline remains committed to a Charlotte hub, even in the event of a merger. “I suspect in any sort of individual scenario that involves US Airways or any other airline in the future, that Charlotte will be a hub airport,” he told the Observer.”  If past actions on the part of American, US Airways and Delta are any indicator such talk is cheap when you consider their past history. The citizens of Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Cincinnati can tell the sad tales of woe.   Since deregulation in the 1970’s the airline oligopoly that has evolved or devolved in the United States has been interested only in market share, dividends and cost-cutting.  They are no longer effectively regulated as a public utility.  According to MSN News: “In the shakeout of American's merger with US Airways, experts believe American's hubs in Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, New York, Los Angeles and Miami are likely to emerge as winners, if only because those markets can support a large amount of traffic on their own. That leaves US Airways' facilities in Philadelphia, Phoenix and, especially, Charlotte, N.C., most at risk.”       http://news.msn.com/us/airline-merger-could-squeeze-some-hub-airports                      

          Other communities in the United States have been shortchanged and hurt by the consolidation and formation of oligopolies in the airline industry in the advanced throes of deregulation.   (Note: I am neither a fan of deregulation nor consolidation of the US Airline Industry and believe those factors have adversely affected customer service, the economics of aviation, jobs and professionalism and the availability of decent air transport to many communities.)   I would respectfully suggest those who care about and serve Charlotte to not be sanguine or Pollyannaish and to have a “Plan B” regarding the status of US Airways’ hub at CLT as this merger evolves.   Here, again according to the Charlotte Observer is what happened elsewhere in the US when airlines “consolidated:”

·          Pittsburgh International Airport, a former US Airways hub, was stuck with a new, $1 billion terminal after US Airways cut hundreds of flights there. Airport officials have said they expect to be paying back debt for the expansion until 2018. That, in turn, has kept its operating costs high.

·         Lambert-St. Louis International Airport started on a $1 billion expansion plan in 2001, the same year American Airlines bought bankrupt TWA, which had dominated the airport. Despite pledges to keep St. Louis as a hub, American cut hundreds of flights there and soon discontinued the hub, costing St. Louis direct service to many destinations.  I am very familiar with that disaster for St. Louis and consumers.  I used to fly between Washington Dulles on a comfortable MD-80 on TWA and for a bit after the hostile takeover on American.  Soon you could only fly on United or American Eagle subcontracted “regional carriers” in cramped small commuter jets. 

·         Closer to home at Raleigh  when American Airlines closed its hub in 1995 it was by far the airport's biggest tenant, at one point flying 73 percent of its passengers and offering about 200 daily departures.   Raleigh’s airport managed to attract Southwest Airlines and other carriers, but never regained major hub status.

            There are some salient geographic, operational and even historic airline considerations we need to consider now that US Airways has swallowed American: 

            First the good news - there is opportunity in chaos:  During this merger it will take months if not years to rationalize American and US Airways respective route structures.  Charlotte City, the Airport or somebody working for and with them should be studying those now and thinking of them now.  The city and local business needs to be preparing a case as to why Charlotte Douglas should remain a hub.

             Second, consider US Airways history: For Charlotte, there is one important word regarding the history of US Airways: Piedmont, the iconic North Carolina-based local service carrier of the 1950’s through the 1980’s.  US Airways has a family tree of many former local service carriers such as Allegheny (which served mainly Pennsylvania and adjacent states) which merged in 1967 with Indianapolis-based Lake Central Airlines then in 1971 with Upstate New York and New England’s Mohawk, in 1987 the West Coast’s PSA; and in 1987 with Piedmont (a marriage Jerry Orr is quite familiar with).   Then, in 2005 America West of Phoenix bought out and merged with US Air and became US Airways.  The thing to consider is that US Airways is a hodge-podge of a multitude of local service carriers that has taken decades to rationalize.   Charlotte, as a former Piedmont hub might “go back to the future” and serve as a smaller American (US Airways + American, that is) hub for the Southeast utilizing for the most part “regional airlines” subcontracted aircraft in American livery.   A review of flights out of Charlotte show that many with a US Airways flight number and painted in US Airways colors are not “real” US Airways flights but rather regional airlines contracted to US Airways.  The opportunity in this chaos is that many passengers hate transiting through Atlanta, JFK and especially Miami.  But geography and the economics of flying might offset any concerns regarding convenience.   Has customer convenience and service been a salient factor in air travel in the United States in recent years?

            Third, and most ominously we should consider operational geography.  This US Airways acquisition of American US Airways would gain three important hubs at New York’s JFK, Philadelphia and at Miami that are closer and less costly for fuel to Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean respectively than Charlotte.  When we look at an airline route map a Mercator Projection is misleading as flights from Asia, Europe and the Middle East don’t come from the east over the Atlantic over Kitty Hawk, but follow a Polar Great Circle.  In some circumstances using Charlotte as a hub could cost a lot more in expensive fuel.  It also could be redundant.         Fourth, consider the important German market.  US Airways is a member of the Star Alliance, but not the Star Alliance linchpin that United is.  American is the US bulwark of the Oneworld Alliance, and the new carrier would probably affiliate that way.  That raises questions on Lufthansa’s flight from Munich to Charlotte if there are no Star Alliance regional connections to connect with in Charlotte – shifting connections to United at the closer to Europe Dulles Airport (IAD) hub in Northern Virginia.

            Fifth, consider Latin America, Chiquita and Brazil. Will 700 Chiquita staff in Charlotte justify non-stops daily from the Caribbean and South America rather than using the myriad of current American flights into their fortress Miami?  No need for direct flights from CLT to Sao Paulo or Rio or Buenos Aires as passengers already arriving in Miami on American or their Oneworld ally and code share partner LAN would be funneled to Charlotte – at less cost to the new airline through Miami.  Unfortunately Miami’s role as “the Capital of Latin America” and cultural and immigration heritage links mitigate against a shift in many American flights to Charlotte especially as it would cost more in fuel costs.  Then again, as mentioned above, the opportunity in this chaos is that many passengers hate transiting through Miami with its awful Immigration and Customs lines, and perhaps the Latin American Chamber of Commerce in Charlotte can play a role in influencing future US Airways decisions.

            Finally there is the fact that Charlotte generates relatively little traffic to justify the economics of being a hub. As noted by MSN News, Adie Tomer, an associate fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that with 1.8 million people, the city just isn't big enough. "There's a lot of advantages to Charlotte, but they don't have the local base to fall back on, so they have to constantly incentivize the airline itself to keep flying through there," he said. "They just really have a connectivity that vastly outranks their metropolitan economic standing."

            What about a Plan B?   A not so obvious plan would be to start suggesting to the regional airlines flying smaller aircraft out of Charlotte that they could fill the gap left by a US Airways, soon to be American downgrade of CLT’s status.  They would be left in a lurch by such a move.  However, one should note that the jobs for those airlines are much lower paying – in some cases barely above minimum wage even for pilots and the volume of flights would not generate nearly as much economic activity and associated jobs that the current situation does.

            In short, Charlotte remaining a US Airways hub in its current state is not a done deal and there are serious factors suggesting it might not.  There will be an uncertain course for the Charlotte Airport and its boosters (which I regard myself) to navigate in coming months.  We have a lot of work ahead of us.

http://news.msn.com/us/airline-merger-could-squeeze-some-hub-airports

Closer to Reality: US Airways merger wins backing from AMR bondholder group | CharlotteObserver.com

US Airways merger wins backing from AMR bondholder group | CharlotteObserver.comhttp://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/01/30/3820743/group-of-amr-bondholders-back.html#emlnl=Top_Stories%3A_Business_Review

The important thing to note in this, is that this merger is in the perceived interests of the investors, not Charlotte, and not necessarily the flying public.  There is no CAB around anymore to be a champion of competition and service to communities. 

Anti-Intellectualism in Raleigh? McCrory wants to revamp higher ed funding, takes aim at UNC-Chapel Hill | CharlotteObserver.com

McCrory wants to revamp higher ed funding, takes aim at UNC-Chapel Hill | CharlotteObserver.com

Anti-Intellectualism in Raleigh? Some people just don't get it.  A university education is not vocational school, and lots of smart people study non-academic as in technological subjects.  However lots of career fields - including teaching require knowkedge and thinking ability in the humanities, foreign languages, philosophy and religion.  McCrory brings to mind Richard Hofstadter's Anti-Intellectualism in American Life.  My graduate alma mater, Mr. Jefferson's University of Virginia was under attack last summer by an attempted coup on the part of business interests that think a university is in the business of making money rather than intellectual development - entrepreneurs who don't see the value of teaching German, Philosophy or other liberal arts. 

Etihad Airlines and the "New" Middle East

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2012/10/11/etihad-airways-and-the-new-middle-east/

This interesting article from late last year is a bit Pollyannish.  It compares apples and oranges.  As an airline analyst I can tell you that the author "gets it" for some of the reasons he lists regarding Etihad's successful business model.  A lot of it, however, as also is the case of Emirates and Qatar has to do with customer service as compared to legacy carriers - and on simple geography - as in real estate and regional planning - location - is everything for a hub airline. That's the apple... The GCC states are very well placed for linking long distance routes and connections.  Where we get to the oranges is geography and other factors. Geography, however, is where things get complicated and where the author gets bogged down in the sands of Middle Eastern cultures, religions, and politics.  He admits to never having visited the region and apparently bases his observations on the stock market and even CNN.  As one who has been involved in the analysis and diplomacy of the region for more than three decades and has travelled there, I have to regard this analysis as superficial - maybe ok for buying some stocks but not for political investment and political risk forecasting.  Neither Syria nor Iran will transform into a UAE or Oman or Qatar.  The intersection of Shia Islam and Iranian politics and security policy will not easily lead to democratic change.  The economic oasis of airline success could dry up if geopolitical forces shift to a conflict in the Straits of Hormuz or an Iranian attack on the GCC such as in response to an Israeli or other strike on Iranian nuclear sites.  Etihad's success - no matter how great an airline it is (and it is) cannot be equated as a harbinger of progress in the Middle East.

A US Airways and American Airlines Marriage: Good for Charlotte?

A US Airways and American Airlines Marriage: Good for Charlotte?

By Mark Carolla

            Snobs from elsewhere in the US sometimes refer to Charlotte, North Carolina as “Mayberry with an Airport.”  (Mayberry being the rural North Carolina town of an Andy Griffith Show and Mayberry RFD television comedy series of the 1960’s.)  Charlotte, with its financial and business presence with several Fortune 500 firms located there, including several such as Chiquita Brands with international operations and equities isn’t exactly Mayberry.  Notably, there are 194 German-owned firms in the Charlotte area including 59 U.S. headquarters; making Germany the most largely represented foreign country in the region. Charlotte Douglas Airport (CLT) is the sixth largest airport in the United States when it comes to flight operations, but about 90 per cent of passenger traffic is US Airways hub traffic connecting through CLT.  CLT is home to over 15,000 direct airport jobs.

            What will happen to CLT if US Airways takes over American?   An excellent April 9, 2012 article by Ely Portillo in the Charlotte Observer  quoted Aviation analyst Henry Harteveldt of Cambridge, Mass.-based Atmosphere Research Group, as stating it’s risky to invest in more capacity with the future of the airport’s No. 1 carrier up in the air. “Charlotte’s future is so heavily tied to US Airways’ status as an independent airline, and right now there is a lot of uncertainty,” he said. “There really is a risk.”   (Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/04/09/3158982/airport-bets-a-billion-on-future.html#storylink=cpy  )   According to the same Observer article respected and veteran CLT Airport Director Jerry Orr “says he’s not concerned about the possibility of a US Airways merger. He said there always will be room in the Southeast for a hub besides Atlanta, and Charlotte Douglas can be that hub as long as it is well-run and stays low-cost for airlines. US Airways CEO Doug Parker says the airline remains committed to a Charlotte hub, even in the event of a merger. “I suspect in any sort of individual scenario that involves US Airways or any other airline in the future, that Charlotte will be a hub airport,” he told the Observer.”   I hope that is the case.

                                                This American livery + This US Airways livery =

                                                  This American livery and change for CLT?
        Other communities in the United States have been shortchanged and hurt by the consolidation and formation of oligopolies in the airline industry in the advanced throes of deregulation.   (Note: I am neither a fan of deregulation nor consolidation of the US Airline Industry and believe those factors have adversely affected customer service, the economics of aviation, jobs and professionalism and the availability of decent air transport to many communities.)   As, I am currently associated as a political risk and international transportation and security advisor with Edna Chirico of Green Moose Consulting in Charlotte I find this history interesting if not compelling.  Although my current specialty is transportation security, as a former Indications and Warnings analyst with the US Intelligence Community and keen observer of the airline industry I would respectfully advise Edna, Mr. Orr and others who care about and serve Charlotte to not be sanguine or Pollyannaish and to have a “Plan B” regarding the status of US Airways’ hub at CLT if the merger takes place.   Here, again according to the Observer is what happened elsewhere in the US when airlines “consolidated:”

·         Pittsburgh International Airport, a former US Airways hub, was stuck with a new, $1 billion terminal after US Airways cut hundreds of flights there. Airport officials have said they expect to be paying back debt for the expansion until 2018. That, in turn, has kept its operating costs high.

·         Lambert-St. Louis International Airport started on a $1 billion expansion plan in 2001, the same year American Airlines bought bankrupt TWA, which had dominated the airport. Despite pledges to keep St. Louis as a hub, American cut hundreds of flights there and soon discontinued the hub, costing St. Louis direct service to many destinations.  I am very familiar with that disaster for St. Louis and consumers.  I used to fly between Washington Dulles on a comfortable MD-80 on TWA and for a bit after the hostile takeover on American.  Soon you could only fly on United or American Eagle subcontracted “regional carriers” in cramped small commuter jets. 

·         Closer to home at Raleigh  when American Airlines closed its hub in 1995 it was by far the airport's biggest tenant, at one point flying 73 percent of its passengers and offering about 200 daily departures.   Raleigh’s airport managed to attract Southwest Airlines and other carriers, but never regained major hub status.

           

            There are some geographic, operational and even historic airline considerations we need to consider if US Airways swallows American.   First of all, there is opportunity in chaos, if the merger takes place it will take months if not years to rationalize American and US Airways respective route structures.  CLT leadership or somebody working for and with them should be studying those now and thinking of this now.   Also, CLT needs to be preparing a case as to why it should remain a hub.

             Second, consider US Airways history: For Charlotte, there is one important word regarding the history of US Airways: Piedmont, the iconic North Carolina-based local service carrier of the 1950’s through the 1980’s.  US Airways has a family tree of many former local service carriers such as Allegheny (which served mainly Pennsylvania and adjacent states) which merged in 1967 with Indianapolis-based Lake Central Airlines then in 1971 with Upstate New York and New England’s Mohawk, in 1987 the West Coast’s PSA; and in 1987 with Piedmont (a marriage Jerry Orr is quite familiar with).   Then, in 2005 America West of Phoenix bought out and merged with US Air and became US Airways.  The thing to consider is that US Airways is a hodge podge of a multitude of local service carriers that has taken decades to rationalize.   Charlotte, as a former Piedmont hub might “go back to the future” and serve as a smaller American (US Airways + American, that is) hub for the Southeast utilizing for the most part “regional airlines” subcontracted aircraft in American livery.    A review of flights out of Charlotte show that many with a US Airways flight number and painted in US Airways colors are not “real” US Airways flights but rather regional airlines contracted to US Airways.  The opportunity in this chaos is that many passengers hate transiting through Atlanta.

                                                      ( A Piedmont Martin 404)  *             


            Third, we should consider operational geography.  In US Airways acquisition of American US Airways would gain two important hubs at New York’s JFK and at Miami that are closer and less costly for fuel to Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean respectively than Charlotte.  When we look at an airline route map a Mercator Projection is misleading as flights from Asia, Europe and the Middle East don’t come from the east over the Atlantic over Kitty Hawk, but follow a polar great circle.  In some circumstances using Charlotte as a hub could cost a lot more in expensive fuel. 

            Fourth, consider the important German market.  US Airways is a member of the Star Alliance, but not the IS Star Alliance linchpin that United is.  American is the US bulwark of the Oneworld Alliance, and the new carrier would probably affiliate that way.  That raises questions on Lufthansa’s flight from Munich to Charlotte if there are no Star Alliance regional connections to connect with in Charlotte – shifting connections to United at the closer to Europe Dulles Airport (IAD) hub in Northern Virginia.

            Consider Latin America, Chiquita and Brazil. Will 700 Chiquita staff in Charlotte justify non-stops daily from the Caribbean and South America rather than using the myriad of current American flights into their fortress Miami?  Unfortunately Miami’s role as “the Capital of Latin America” and cultural and immigration heritage links mitigate against a shift in many American flights to Charlotte especially as it would cost more in fuel costs.  Then again, the opportunity in this chaos is that many passengers hate transiting through Miami with its awful Immigration and Customs lines, and perhaps the Latin American Chamber of Commerce in Charlotte can play a role in influencing future US Airways decisions.

            In short, Charlotte remaining a US Airways hub in its current state is not a done deal.  There will be an uncertain course for the Charlotte Airport and its boosters (which I regard myself) to navigate in coming months.  We have a lot of work ahead of us.

*  Postcard available from Aviation Hobby Centers http://tamcosystems.com/store/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=466 )

Mali Conflict Highlights New Military and Security Challenges

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/davidblair/100200080/the-fight-against-al-qaeda-in-mali-could-be-a-sign-of-how-the-wests-wars-are-fought-in-future/?goback=%2Egde_4657639_member_208292595

This item in the UK's Daily Telegraph highlights the nature of conflict in the post Afghanistan and Iraq Era.  One of the characteristics of conflict in North and Sub-Saharan Africa is that they may hinge on company and battalion size engagements rather than armored divisions and large air forces.  They also, as in the case of Afghanistan also involve complicated ethnic and religious relationships.  Threat and political risk analysts will not have an easy time advising clients investing in Africa nor in advising on transportation security.

Resuming Business As Usual Difficult For Arab Airlines

Resuming Business As Usual Difficult For Arab Airlines

This excellent AviationWeek and Space Technology article spotlights how the darker side of the Arab Spring; the Terrorist and Insurgent Threat in the Maghreb; and Israel-IAEA-Iran Confrontation all loom as factors airlines and the tourist industry must cope with. This linked article doesn't even really explore the Iranian situation in relation to the geography of Dubai and Doha. Political stabilization is imperative for Egypt's tourism economy, and the turmoil in the area can impact the economics of the airline industry, cruise industry and tourism.

Political Risks and Threat Assessments will be of increasing importance for those involved in commerce in and with this area.